On Sept 7, pseudo-anonymous Dutch investor PlanB (@100trillionUSD) tweeted out a chart that shows Bitcoin user growth over the last decade, illustrating the number of Bitcoin addresses with more than .01 BTC.
Along with the chart, PlanB presented the idea of Bitcoin as its own ‘cyber country.’ If this concept were entertained, BTC would be the fastest-growing country with a population of three million.
Known for his use of data and math to create investment models, PlanB’s charts have inspired many people to believe in Bitcoin’s strength and energy. The ‘100 trillion USD’ in the handle is a nod to the 100 trillion dollar note issued during Zimbabwe’s era of hyperinflation.
PlanB’s tweet garnered a great deal of attention. Perhaps most notably from Twitter user @Croesus_BTC, who responded with an additional thread on adoption. The main takeaway from this thread was that current adoption is still minuscule in comparison to its potential:
Croesus’ speculation was based on a number of assumptions:
- Bitcoin becomes the preferred money/savings technology and has a total addressable market of anyone with $10k+ wealth.
- Impoverished communities also turn to Bitcoin.
- Penetration has reached 10M—a rough estimate of how many people have $1,000+ stored in BTC, based on 3M addresses with >0.1BTC.
Croesus also conceded that how long this adoption curve might take is the impossible question. “We all accept that this transformation may take decades. But I had to pick some rough timeframe to do this analysis” PlanB, for his part, agreed, “Yes, we are early. It is still [in the] innovator stage, not yet early adopter.”
Other respondents questioned where governments and central bank digital currencies might fit into the picture—noting that programmed central bank money, such as China’s digital yuan, could, and perhaps are, being designed to restrict capital flows.
On this count, PlanB was firm. “I don’t want government money or central bank money, that can be debased and confiscated at will. I don’t want it, not physical or virtual; they can keep their CBDC.”
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